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The real DD on SLV, the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history
Update 2/4 - someone went ahead and spelled out the mechanics of the squeeze quite well and I would like to give their post attention https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Update 2/2 - I am able to comment again. I messaged several mods on Reddit and the mod account on Twitter. None of them responded but it appears I am able to comment again so I assume one of them lifted my ban Update 2/1 - I have been banned from posting on WSB. I guess they aren’t yet deleting my post here given the media attention. If this was a rogue mod I’d appreciate being restored the ability to post on WSB. I’m open to talking to any mods Update 1/31 - there have been tons of 'what to buy' questions so I added a clarity post, hope it helps. It's also getting downvoted to hell because its not about GME so that's discouraging. The speed at which the downvotes flew in makes me think someone made bots to crush new posts related to SLV (or maybe anything not GME). It makes no sense for this post to have 93% upvotes and my new one to have 28%. I have not sold my GME to buy SLV. I had a small pre-existing position in leaps I bought months ago. Created an official Twitter handle not sure if I’ll use it, but didn’t want anyone to impersonate me on there Here is the longer DD for the short squeeze case for SLV, a follow-up from my shorter post a few hours ago. Note that I talk in first person as this is something I’m going to do. Everyone is free to do as they individually please and copy my trade if they’d like to. I think it’s absurd that forces at be think this forum is manipulating by posting publicly but that’s where we are at right now. First things first, I'm not doing this until the GME rise is done. I am long GME but am going long SLV immediately after. Update 1/29: due to the manipulation and collusion of citadel, hedge funds, and brokers to change the rules and rig the game in their favor. Who likely knew ahead of time and bought puts right before and calls at the bottom, GME is too important to abandon still. SLV is still my next play but GME needs to go to $1000 and these people need to go to jail. If you just want to know what to buy skip to the end I present 2 investment DDs in this post, the short squeeze and the fundamentals. If you want to see what to buy The short squeeze: Buy SLV shares and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults. Also buy physical silver bullion. The best possible thing would be to take physical delivery in the futures market if you have access to do so. The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future. The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years). The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn't the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren't halted and that's what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens. Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation. The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule. The fundamentals: The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold. Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil. This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren't going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It's locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot. **If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months ** The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today's world is because there aren't really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth's crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online. Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand. The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself. What to buy: Edit 2/24: I now advocate buying PSLV for shares, physical metal if the premiums come back down, and if you want options then SLV is still ok for that. I will be putting 50% directly into SLV shares, and 50% into the $35 strike SLV calls expiring 4/16. This way the SLV purchase creates a groundswell into silver immediately that then rockets through a gamma squeeze as SLV approaches $35. Price target of $75 for SLV by end of April if the short squeeze happens. Edit: for the part of your purchases going into shares, some people recommend PSLV because they think SLV might start lying about having the silver in their vault. Or that the custodian will be double counting, ie claiming that the same silver belongs to multiple people (banking on the fact that people wont all try to get their silver at once). So if you buy SLV shares and calls, that's great. But I think it could be prudent for us to buy options in SLV (no options on PSLV) and shares in PSLV. It all depends on how paranoid you want to be. There is a lot of paranoia in the precious metals world. Alternate options: - buying physical silver; this also works but you pay a premium to buy and sell so its less efficient and you take fewer silver ounces off of the market because of the premium you pay - going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery - miners; I don’t recommend buying miners as part of this trade. Miners will absolutely go up if SLV goes up, but buying them doesn't create the squeeze in the actual silver market. Furthermore, most silver miners only derive 30-50% of their revenue from silver anyways, so eventually SLV will outperform them as it gets high enough (and each marginal SLV dollar only increases miner profits by a smaller and smaller percentage) Details on SLV physical settlement: When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus: "An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. The Trustee’s arrangements with the Custodian contemplate that at the end of each business day there can be in the Trust account maintained by the Custodian no more than 1,100 ounces of silver in an unallocated form. The bulk of the Trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, identified on the Custodian’s or, if applicable, sub-custodian's, books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the Trust and is held by the Custodian in London, New York and other locations that may be authorized in the future." Join me brothers. Lets take silver to the moon and take on the biggest and baddest manipulators in the world. Please post rocket emojis in the comments as desired. Disclaimer: do your own research, make your own decisions, everything here is a guess and hypothetical and nothing is guaranteed, not a financial advisor, I have ADHD and maybe other things too. Bear case: silver does tend to sell off if the broader market plunges so it’s not immune to broad market sell off. It’s also the most manipulated market in the world so we are facing some tough competition on the short side
Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense. I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days. And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind. I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change. One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone! Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend. What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't. NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price. Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk. Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em! Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01 Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors. BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger? Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A. FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me. I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do. NOK PLAY: Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part. 1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head. 2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends. 3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS Value Part (crazy part in Q&A): The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble. Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/ Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27 They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers? Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too. So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back. Q&A Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to? Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company. Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER. https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5 That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price. Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially". But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up. So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands. Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it. They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen? Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself. Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps. Q: Why is NOK not rocketing? A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady. The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April. SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible. Q: How do we know it’s working? A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how. This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up? What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor. Q: Where will this max out and when? A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it. Set your targets to $3310, that should do it. Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy? A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it. Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK. A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money. Part 2: (29 Jan) First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it. Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK. NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us. OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this. What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with. But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN. UNBREAKABLE 3310! ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan): I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so. I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks. But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late. Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world. 3516.16% of average trading volume. Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze. But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them. Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us. What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct). But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work? Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares. Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets. And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them. So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME). Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit. Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph. You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why? What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year? Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that? But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China? US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world. Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great? Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now. Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered. The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up. So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works. But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change? So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS. TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
What is Citadel and where do I go to get away from them?
So, right now, you might be asking yourself "Fuck Robinhood. Where should I, Timmy from Charlotte, move my account? Fuck Robinhood. How do I get away from Citadel? Fuck Robinhood. What is going on? Fuck Robinhood." I'm not 100% sure where this post is going so I can't promise I'll answer any of those questions but my goal here is still coherent conversation so maybe someone else might have those answers in the comments. Idk.
What is Citadel and what do they do?
A hedge fund wrapped up with an advisory service, an execution venue, a market maker, an IPO partner, a sandwich shop, etc.. Such megacorps pay firms fractions of a cent to pass each order through them for execution. The more orders the brokerage passes along, the more they're paid. Money is involved because the more orders that pass through a particular execution venue first, the faster they can make decisions about the direction of the market on both the micro and macro scale. This is the current nature of the market. Order data for 'new' and 'small' traders using self-directed firms has been especially valuable the last 20 years because you do things institutions cannot. You can open a new position based on a tweet while the major advisory services need to whip out the scales and weigh the cost of moving assets for countless customers at once and that's even further complicated if they're designated fiduciaries because, in their book, reacting quickly implies that there's unknown risks involved. For example, they did the numbers on a particular company six months ago and decided it wouldn't be profitable in another six months. Even in 2021, they just can't move as fast as you but knowing what you're doing is a step closer to them being able to respond sooner with smaller changes rather than react with major changes when shit hits the fan. (BTW, the fatal flaw on $GME is that they tried to play the old 'cull the weak' game that worked for them for decades and absolutely chose to ignore the direction the market was moving until it was too late. If they'd used the order flow and other data they're paying so much cash to access and were as bright as they imagine they are, it would have been rough but even hardcore shorts could have lived through this week. Retail investors can pat themselves on the back for exploiting it but Melvin Capital got fucked by hubris and lack of awareness.) Not to get all RZA between songs on it but that's why the title of this sub has been 'Welcome to the machine!' for a long time now. The major players know you dream of making it big, buying a car, having a steak, and all the other things Roger wrote about, just by doing something you enjoy (playing guitar but it could be your art, you talents in math or science, taps in a mobile game, or in this instance investing) and they'll welcome you in with open arms, convince you that they'll be a guide and there to help, knowing they'll get a cut just by letting you do what you do and finding a way to package it. People over simplify it with "if the service is free, you are the product" because they don't notice that the machine will also make you pay if it can. Money for order flow has made it easier for others to provide the space for you to do what you do without noticing they're cashing in even if you don't but don't forget that the machine can be other investors. The machine can be the large firms. The machine can be investment advice columnists. Hedge funds and brokerages aren't the only 'machine operators' in the financial industry.
Which firms use Citadel and which ones don't?
They all use Citadel. I'm not joking, I've kept up to date on execution venues (people probably thought I was just lecturing them about understanding order flow here but I dislike Virtu as a venue and Apex as a clearing firm which I've talked about here for years) and the concentration of orders being fed to the short list of venues has not changed in a positive way because that's where the money is. The idea for this post came to me this morning because no news article, no TV interview, and not a single hot take on Twitter I've read so far has managed to mention just how embedded Citadel individually is in the modern market. I had AOC's live stream on in the background last night and even the guests seemed to imply that Citadel is a little firm propping up Robinhood and that nobody could have seen this blowing up one day. These relationships (even down to how much money is paid) are public by law. Every quarter, both sides are required to release data on order flow in 605 (raw), and 606/607 reports. Here's a quick rundown of places I could come up with off the top of my head that use Citadel as their primary or secondary execution venue and what percentage of orders for S&P 500 listed securities they recently sent through Citadel:
* Marketable limit orders are those that immediately have a chance of executing against the current spread # Firsttrade is predominantly a dark pool only sending orders away when they require liquidity $ Alpaca is an API-first firm which I like and talk about on Discord sometimes because I wish RH would open their API but they're still backed by Apex which I dissuade everyone from getting involved with because Penson Financial Services. % IEX is a closed loop exchange that internally clears orders among customers (great source for free order data to test algos) @ Apex is the clearing agent for many smaller firms including Public.com, Betterment, Acorns, M1, Rize, Stockpile, Stash, Now, when you look at that list, remember three things:
that 99.9% of the remaining orders are going to Wolverine, Virtu, 2 Sigma, and other hedge fund adjacent venues for execution
brokerages were doing the same back when they were also charging commissions. I don't feel firms being paid for order flow is inherently wrong but whatever agreement Citadel has in place to force firms to act in Citadel's best interest over customers and even over the brokerage's own best interest is difficult to wrap my mind around right now. Which brings me to my next point...
Citadel's most loyal sources for order flow (Robinhood, TDA, Webull, and IB) all fell in line and limited trading at least part of the day. The agreements between these companies and Citadel are obviously not public but I'm sure Citadel has them bent over a contractual barrel that left them with no choice but to comply. As a customer of half of those firms, I say they should have done whatever they could to explain the actual situation to the public (spoilers: it wasn't risk on the retail side), taken whatever penalties Citadel could impose for ignoring them (all the way up to breach of contract, etc), and fight that out in court rather than act in ways that seems to have only punished and confused customers. Corporate level decision making is so fucking stupid.
Where to go?
Fino. If IEX was larger, that would be a decent alternative for equities but they don't have a silly app that looks good in screenshots but tells you nothing useful. I can't think of a self-directed firm that can currently exist without Citadel and the rest. If you do, post about it, I guess.
More things I for sure do not know...
...but hope someone wants to talk about.
I don't know shit about the legality of anything that has gone on this week with Robinhood and no, I will not be a part of any lawsuit because I was not effected by what happened because I don't have any options or equity holdings in Robinhood and cannot claim damages. Stop asking me.
I'm not even sure if splitting corporations up anti-trust style would work for this. For sure, it was Citadel's vested interest that cascaded down to firms and then users but I don't know of any cases that forced divestiture on that scale. Hedge funds with cases in a friendly district could make a valid claim that they cannot function without access to both order data and current assets. It'll be interesting to see if anything changes over the next few years and how.
Disclosure
Doxxing myself more and more but I worked for a market analytics/quantitative research firm in the city that was eventually gobbled up by Virtu. I'd moved abroad months earlier anyway but we loved that job and they only wanted the algos we'd designed so fuck Virtu. My current day job makes trading public companies complex (which is why I only talk about algotrading ETH on Discord). Most of my self-directed play money is still with TDA (haven't made a trade there or on RH in almost three years) but the majority of my family's assets, my retirement, my kid's inheritances and college funds, and on and on have been handled by GS for nearly two decades and likely will continue to be even after I return to the private sector. Now, what would be sweet is if Goldman Sachs would extend their investment arm (which sends orders directly to exchanges) to the general public like they have with their Marcus savings accounts. If they could devise a way to legally pass a good percentage of all (would be dependent on volume of the security, etc.) orders directly to the floor as a bundle, they'd break even at best on it but that would actually 'democratize the market.'
Ok, everybody needs to take a few deep breaths and cool it.
We need to set one thing straight. Do we have the power to move the stock market or not? Just 2 weeks ago the overwhelming sentiment was "this is the hedge funds game, we're just trying to catch a ride. Individual retail investors can't do shit to move markets. We're hyennas picking at Zebra carcasses, but sooner or later the Lions are going to come back and reclaim their feast." Now it's a complete 180. I'm seeing tons of outrage from people who got burnt today on their weed calls. Acting like this lot of new degenerates came in and pumped the price before bailing, thus crushing the overall market. 20% gains for them cost you tens of thousands on your call options. Well, how much blame does the media get? 8 million people in this sub is a lot, but how many people does CNBC, Fox Business, The Wall Street Journal, Market Watch, The New York Times, etc. Reach? When they all band together and spend 2-3 full trading days only talking about "the new Wall Street Bets move", how many day traders come running? Just Google "Wall Street Bets weed" to see what I'm talking about. We're either being played, or it's actually us having this big of an impact on the market. I don't know the answer. So let's look at both scenarios. We control the market This is dope! We can work with this, and grow into it, but first I want to get something off my chest. FUCK YOU! Talkin bout "degenerates ruining my weed plays". Bitch, what have you been chortling about with GME this whole time? "💎🖐🦍 Gang got greedy and forgot to hedge profits." "I took my gains at 300 like a pro." "It's so funny how the smooth brains got left holding the bag." Preaching about holding the line in January while you turned 100 @ $5 into 15 @ $50, then switched to pissing on "bag holders" for "getting played" in February. If we truly have the power to move markets, then the $10's of millions in profits everyone took is what brought down the rising market caps. It also bailed out the shorts who were/are less than halfway done covering (TLRY has high SI too). Then we went and did the exact same thing with weed stocks. Don't hate the player, hate the game right? Ultimately, something tells me stocks don't move up when everyone is trying to play with house money. Definitely can't "hold any lines" with house money either. We should invest in stocks we care about for their long term potential; any squeezes or pumps that potentially come out of that are just an added benefit. We don't have the power to move markets That's cool. We're still getting blamed for it, though. Not just from salty weed "bag holders" in here, but from all of the media. We got blamed for this meteoric rise, and within 20 minutes of the tank in pre-market CNBC was already pointing the finger at us. Weed Stocks have been on the rise for 3 months, if you guys were just riding a wave none of us "retail traders" have any control over, then what crashed it? I won't speculate on that because it falls under "conspiracy bullshit" but we should discuss it. I posted this thread this morning claiming it was a diversion attempt away from GME, and urged people to "cash out their gains before it crashes." I wrote it before the price tanked. The mods deleted it, and rightfully so. I don't have any evidence to back up that theory. What I'm trying to say now isn't about GME either. However, if we don't actually have any control over the stock market we should be using the media manipulation to make fat gains before we get fucked by big time day traders and algorithm options trading. As soon as they dump a trend on us, we should dump that trend. If the price follows immediately, we'll know we actually have control of these markets, if it doesn't we'll know we're getting played and figure out why. What do you guys think? Quit "REEEEE"-ing all over the place and let's figure this shit out!! P.S. RIP to all the people who bought both TLRY and GME at their peaks and still have no idea what happened. Edit: I'm not a financial advisor. Everything above is pure speculation. I'm just a dude bored during a Pandemic who apparently likes losing money. (also changed some wording in OP)
Dear Robinhood, Due to your actions last week you forced many of us to make a decision of what platforms we will be using to trade from in the future. I personally moved all of my funds from RH to another platform. What you may not realize is that there are a LOT of people who did this as well. All of my funds will become available to trade with on Monday morning as I'm sure many other peoples will be too. You fucked yourself and your friends... as come Monday morning will be a whole lot more capital ready to be reivested in GME, AMC, NOK, BB and what ever the fuck other stocks I LIKE. I LIKE THIS STOCK, I LIKE THIS COMPANY, I LOVE RYAN COHEN and FUCKING LOVE MY FELLOW RETARDS. We are not just lowly elite, we are the SUPER ELITE. APES STRONG TOGETHER ALL SHARES MATTER Can't Stop, Won't Stop, GameSTONK! Edit: 💎💎💎👐 GME GANG Going to fucking ANDROMEDA 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍 Edit 2: It seems some people are still asking if its too late to buy. I value this stock at $4206.90 and that's what I'm willing to walk away with. I'm not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. With that being said... a life with out taking risks is a life having to wear a condom EVERY FUCKING TIME while you continually pound Melvin's Ass. Edit 3: Next step.... we reached 320 this week and that was our target. Congrats all my fellow degenerates as we held the line. As you can see they are now offering up to 800 on next week's options. That's our next target. The squeeze could happen or it may not happen next week but we have a target in sight. They are trying to do everything in their power to suppress our valuation. Hold strong autists. We set the price. Prediction: GME opens Monday 500+ and we continue on our mission. Edit 4: A lot of people are asking me questions about what happened. I was trading GME since Jan 11th as a broke ass bitch, I threw in $200 played a nice $26 call before we spiked to 32 I was excited and cashed out to turn that into 30 shares of GME and hedged my way up to 55 shares over the following weeks. Im not rich, I think I just played this right move. Now here's what happened on Thursday... The Robinhood app blocked me from buying so my plan was to do a hedge on multiple platforms. Sell half on RH and rebuy after the inevitable ladder attack on my Webull account and then transfer my money there as well from RH. When I sold on RH they literally sold ALL of my shares not just my available shares since the others were locked up in limit sells. I panicked after that happened. And bought in as many as I could on my low funded Webull account. So I had to essentially sit out for the day. Friday full RH transfer hit my account and I set up a new account. Atleast I sold at around 380 and was able to buy back in below that. I owe about 70k in medical debt and GME gave me a chance at making up some of that, I'm +25k on a $200 investment, I need this. You need this. We all need this. Edit 5: now I'm hearing a lot about people talking about possibly missing the short squeeze if they transfer. In all honestly do you fucking care at this point? I don't. I'm all in and have literally put every dime I possiy could on GME I don't really give a shit about it. We are making these cunts bleed out. And if something at some point hits my sell limit I'll be happy, but if it doesn't I don't care because I KNOW THAT I DID THE RIGHT THING.
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MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry
So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain. About Them MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars. Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain? Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued. The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments. MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking: The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April. The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react. That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime"
3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.
VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol. As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable.
Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.
A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom:
Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.) However, the vertical FOV can be configured from 1° to 30° , which likely explains the use of "up to" in the resolution numbers. Generally, as FOV expands, resolution shrinks, assuming a constant pixel stream. This is why Alex Kipman made such a big deal about MSFT maintaining resolution in Hololens 2(YT links aren't allowed apparently) while expanding FOV because it required more pixels to do so. Specifically, regarding Luminar, is 200 points per square degree available when FOV is at the maximum 120° x 30°? Or is it available only at a lesser FOV such as, for example, 120° x 5°? The use of "up to" suggests the latter. Even assuming 200 points per square degree at 120° x 30° is available, which is not conceded given the stated "up to", that would yield a total resolution of 720,000 points. MVIS claims capacity in excess of 20M points per second. At a resolution of 720,000 points, Luminar would require a frame rate of 27.7 Hz to equal 20M points per second. Luminar's specs do not suggest that its technology is capable of such a high frame rate at this resolution. This is not surprising given it does not use MEMS micromirrors but something more "mechanical" including, as per a recent patent, spindles and a drive belt (1) At video time 19:56, Luminar compares the specs of its Iris product to industry requirements. The graphic reveals that Luminar's 2022 production lidar, Iris, will support resolution of 300 points per square degree at 10 Hz. Assuming that resolution applies to the entire FOV of 120 x 30 degrees and not just a portion of the FOV, that would imply a points per second value of 120 x 30 x 300 x 10 Hz = 10.8M points per second. If the 300 points/ sq. deg applies only to a smaller FOV, the points per second figure would be proportionally smaller. Microvision claims 20M points per second for its current MEMS lidar. The company also advises that its technology is capable of more than 20M points/sec.
TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already. Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April.
We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equatesto 520 points per square degree.
(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to) It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications
Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.
What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving? https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05 Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features. This could identify individual people Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet) Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later Source
LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.
that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap. So, will testing be successful?
We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)
This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing. Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up). Growing Industry The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications. Traffic Accidents in the US aloneCost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles. Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry. If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable. At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\" Augmented Reality The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside. NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently)
'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'... 'We see a reduction in cost, increases in quality'... 'What we've found is we can take an 8 hour activity and reduce it down to 45 minutes'... 'We haven't had a single error that's been documented'...
This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.
Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”
While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.
The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.
In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video.
In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product.Source
Patents MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask?
The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). Source
This index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500. Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model. MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
Whoever has the MicroVision technology may be able to eliminate the competition or demand license fees from them. Or the other way around: Whoever does not buy the technology can be excluded from markets. Therefore, bidding competition may arise to gain access to the market. Whoever has the best LiDAR system for cars will also be able to supply other components and software to car manufacturers. The car manufacturer who has the best LiDAR system has a big advantage over the competition. All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar MicroVision: founded in 1993 Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005 LAZR: founded in 2012 Non-Public: Valeo: Founded in 1998 Robosense: Founded in 2014 SureStar: Founded in 2005 Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding. https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb Insider Activity MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed:
As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.
Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out. On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014. Institutional Investments For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day. Recent Events MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.
Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so. Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021. 7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years. December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership)
So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.
December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4. January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing." Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8. Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar) Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition. Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying “We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision. Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved). Talent at MicroVision Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone. Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass. Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems. Technical analysis Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports. Moving Average Analysis: On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%. On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%. 6 months forward price target: $34.348B Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B VLDR at 3.92B MVIS at 2.77B MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years. This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19.
Host or participate in Heists - Min. Level 1 / to participate; Min. Level 12 / or own a high-end apartment to host
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
CEO Import/Export Vehicle Work by Psychko - Currently most reliable and profitable money grind with high end only method - Min. Level 1 / if you already own a CEO office / if you do not own a CEO office
Do an I/E sourcing mission, then do VIP work (Headhunter or Sightseer are a breeze with a Buzzard) in the cool down, then do an I/E delivery mission. Rinse and repeat!
Earn 2000-3000RP per source delivery, 5000RP per sale delivery. Buy 1 crate and sell immediately for maximum RP since the same RP is given whether you source/sell 1 crate or multiple.
Earn 200-600RP bonuses when you stay near the CEO/VIP's location
Host or participate in Heists - Min. Level 1 / to participate; Min. Level 12 / or own a high-end apartment to host
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
CEO Import/Export Vehicle Work by Psychko - Currently most reliable and profitable money grind with high end only method - Min. Level 1 / if you already own a CEO office / if you do not own a CEO office
Do an I/E sourcing mission, then do VIP work (Headhunter or Sightseer are a breeze with a Buzzard) in the cool down, then do an I/E delivery mission. Rinse and repeat!
Earn 2000-3000RP per source delivery, 5000RP per sale delivery. Buy 1 crate and sell immediately for maximum RP since the same RP is given whether you source/sell 1 crate or multiple.
Earn 200-600RP bonuses when you stay near the CEO/VIP's location
Host or participate in Heists - Min. Level 1 / to participate; Min. Level 12 / or own a high-end apartment to host
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
CEO Import/Export Vehicle Work by Psychko - Currently most reliable and profitable money grind with high end only method - Min. Level 1 / if you already own a CEO office / if you do not own a CEO office
Do an I/E sourcing mission, then do VIP work (Headhunter or Sightseer are a breeze with a Buzzard) in the cool down, then do an I/E delivery mission. Rinse and repeat!
Earn 2000-3000RP per source delivery, 5000RP per sale delivery. Buy 1 crate and sell immediately for maximum RP since the same RP is given whether you source/sell 1 crate or multiple.
Earn 200-600RP bonuses when you stay near the CEO/VIP's location
$SLV is not going to get squeezed...$SLV is the Trojan Horse for the squeeze THAT'S ALREADY HAPPENING
I have no horse in the GME "fight" right now. I wish you all the best, and it is the biggest trading mistake of my life so far. I was talking about GME with my friends in March 2020, and even did trade some options then for a loss. I must have read DFV at some point, as we were discussing Burry and a "technical short squeeze" happening. But I missed the real boat, so good on DFV and all of the rest of you degenerates. Instead, I focused my market attention during quarantine on precious metals. My opinion is that in the long term (10+ years) they will provide the only real hedge against inflation in the world as every CB on the planet is exploding the supply of fiat to deal with COVID economic disruption. In the short term, I believe that the "powers that be" are engineering the largest short squeeze in the history of markets. We do not have the power to effect whether this happens, it is simply an inevitability. HFs, banks, and other large institutions are going to extract an enormous amount of wealth from the world during this squeeze. This money will be taken from the future pocket of every consumer of industrial goods for the next several decades in the form of inflated prices on everything: batteries, electronics, solar panels, EVs...even jewelry and silverware. We cannot stop them, but I have decided to try to hop on for the ride. The last few months aside, I never saw WSB as a force for societal change, because the people who control the money are always going to win the most in the end. WSB is a place where we can learn the tricks of a market that is structurally rigged against us, and use those tricks to our advantage. To use an analogy that I think we all know: I am not, and will never be, Ender. But I can learn that the Enemy's Gate is Down, and play The Game that way. The tl;dr is this: the market for silver is the most manipulated physical market in the history of the world. $SLV is the vehicle that is currently being used behind the scenes to vaccum up ownership of every available physical bar of silver in major bullion vaults in the world. When it has completed doing that, the "paper" markets that have held down the price of silver for decades will become disconnected from the physical markets. The energy that has been artificially held back for decades by this paper will explode the price of physical silver, and I have no idea how high it will go. $SLV will stand (mostly) alone as the world's exchange traded product for electronic trading of physical silver.
LET'S START AT THE BEGINNING: WHY IS SILVER IMPORTANT?
Silver has been used as real currency for thousands of years, and there is an argument to be made for returning to "sound" money through the use of silver and gold. However, that is not the argument that I am making. Silver is a highly industrial metal, and it's usage for industry will only continue to expand as we electrify the future. Silver is important for electrical applications b/c it is the most-conductive / least-resistive metal in the universe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_resistivity_and_conductivity#Resistivity_and_conductivity_of_various_materials). It is used heavily in all electronic applications (even more since RoHS has pushed us away from Tin/Lead and towards Tin/Silver solder blends, with silver being added to mitigate the longevity problems of 100% Tin solder growing Tin whiskers and shorting out components). But the largest new demands on silver are going to come from solar panels and EVs. Utility-scale solar is now virtually tied with wind as the cheapest new sources of energy in the world and is only getting cheaper every year. As fossil fuel plants continue to reach the end of their service life, they are going to be replaced with solar and wind technologies. As EVs become more prevalent, their components (ESPECIALLY their batteries) will produce additional demand for Silver. As smart investors are wont to do, this coming demand for industrial silver has been front-run and large quantites of silver have been sucked into investment products so that they can produce financial returns when demand begins to increase. 2020 showed remarkable investor interest in silver, to the tune of an estimated 350Mtoz moving into exchange traded products like $SLV. $SLV alone added ~200Mtoz of silver to it's holdings in 2020. Unfortunately for the market, supply cannot meet demand: Of the 930.9Mtoz estimated for 2020 demand, only 236Mtoz was available for physical investment, because the rest was consumed by industrial uses. This means that $SLV alone absorbed almost the entire world's capacity for silver investment in 2020, and as you'll see soon, this is only accelerating in 2021. Source for demand/supply/investment numbers: https://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SilverInstitute2020InterimPR.pdf
LETS GET PHYSICAL, PHYSICAL
Now it's important to understand that huge amounts of "silver" is traded on "paper" markets, and these markets have historically decided the approximate cost of physical silver in the world, in the form of the "spot price". I'm not going to give anyone a primer on how this works, go read about the London Fix and COMEX paper on your own time. But the important thing to know is that there are a bunch of silver bars in vaults in London and in the U.S., and electronic claims on them are traded on the LBMA and COMEX continuously, without the silver ever leaving the vaults. However, these vaults have concrete numbers of physical bars in them, and trading contracts against them technically means that you can show up at a window somewhere and demand your 5x 1000oz bars that a COMEX warrant entitle you to. This redemption happens all the time, and it can be used to extract physical silver from the unallocated storage at bullion vaults and release it to industrial or consumer bullion uses. However, these bars can also be moved into "registered" or "allocated" accounts without them leaving the overall vault storage. This means that a quantity of individual silver bars that an owner holds title to can be physically moved inside the vault onto a different rack, and the owner has individual serial numbers of bars that they own. These bars can be withdrawn on demand only by their owner and are not available for general redemption of a COMEX warrant. So how many bars are there? Well between LBMA and COMEX, there are 1480.3Mtoz sitting in vaults (sources below when I start doing math). This includes all allocated AND unallocated bars. Now, obviously London and NY are separated by an ocean, but people always like to bring up that bars could be moved b/w London <-> American COMEX vaults. This is an enormous undertaking, but let's make a "spherical chicken in a vaccuum" level assumption and say that LBMA + COMEX vaults are a singular source of inventory for both $SLV and other market participants. If you read the $SLV S-1 (which I did: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1330568/000119312505127244/ds1.htm) you would learn that the custodian of the $SLV trust is required to hold all silver weight (with an exception for 1100toz of unallocated, lol) that is owned by the trust in allocated accounts, where the individual bars are physically segregated inside the vaults, and the serial numbers of the owned bars are explicitly recorded. The idea that there is "no physical silver" backing the SLV trust and "you could get settled with cash" is ridiculous. iShares publishes a report listing every serial number of every bar that is owned by the trust, along with the total weight contained in the bars. It is 10847 pages long (you can read it here if you have trouble sleeping at night: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf) and is updated frequently. The underlying silver is owned by the trust. It cannot be removed from the trust unless "baskets" of 50000 shares are redeemed by an "Authorized Participant" which is only a few large brokers. It cannot be removed by the bullion vaults and given to other customers because it is physically segregated inside the vaults. People who have recently beaten down the idea of a silver squeeze love to talk about how JP Morgan is the custodian for the SLV trust. And because JPM just paid a $1B fine for historical manipulation of the paper silver market, they aren't going to be honest about this. This is crazy talk. When it comes to the dishonesty of a big bank, there is "fraud" and there is FRAUD. "Fraud" would be them saying "Oh sorry, we didn't realize that a laundromat bringing in $300k/week of dirty dollar bills was out of the ordinary". "Fraud" happens all the time, and the banks get away with it regularly. FRAUD would be them saying "Oh yes, 3rd party customer (iShares) who services dozens of other large banking institutions in the world, here is objective evidence, with serial numbers, that we have these silver bars in the vault" and then just making up the data. It is QANON-level crazy, IMHO, to think that JPM is going to commit FRAUD by publishing a list of serial numbers that is completely fake. I believe the exact opposite: since they have just gotten caught, they are playing it straight this time and have just switched sides in order to go long. On the COMEX alone, JP Morgan Chase is long 193.9Mtoz, or just north of $5B. (COMEX depository data by weight: https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls) The problem for the futures and options markets is that their continual trading of paper contracts is chasing a smaller and smaller amount of physical silver that is not owned by $SLV. And the market participants (minus, now, JPM) who have gotten away with naked selling of paper contracts and mostly settling them for cash are going to soon find the underlying vaults empty and no metal to give to warrant holders who come looking for it.
HOW BIG OF A PROBLEM IS $SLV FOR THE NAKED SHORTS IN THE PAPER MARKET? LET'S DO SOME MATH.
$SLV inventory math: $SLV is holding 669,357,789.40 troy ounces in trust, and has 720,500,000 shares outstanding. (If you are curious why $SLV/share trades below the spot price, it's because: 669.4Mtoz / 720.5M shares = .929 toz / share) ($SLV data from here: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund?qt=SLV#/ ) (screenshot from tonight for posterity: https://imgur.com/a/0sqcMFr) Bullion vault inventory math: London (LBMA) silver stocks are 1080.5Mtoz (http://www.lbma.org.uk/london-precious-metals-physical-holdings-statistics) US COMEX silver stocks are 399.8Mtoz (https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls) 669.4/(1080.5 + 399.8) = 45.2% of the vaulted silver in the world is already owned by SLV Subtracting what SLV already owns, leaves us with: (1080.5 + 399.8) - 669.4 = 810.9Mtoz (This is completely ignoring the fact that a lot of that remaining silver is owned in registered or allocated accounts by individual owners. E.g. there is 150.2Mtoz in "registered" on the COMEX which means those bars are already specifically deeded to an individual owner. But they could theoretically sell it to SLV so I included it as available.) 810.9Mtoz is the ABSOLUTE THEORETICAL MAXIMUM available in LBMA + COMEX silver that is not already owned by SLV. Now how short are the shorts? Some more math: OI on COMEX futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver-futures-and-options.html
in currently open interest that could be demanded for delivery. Just on the COMEX, there could be demand for twice as much silver as there is in the combined LBMA + COMEX vaults that is not explicitly owned by $SLV right now. Caveats:
I have not included any London futures contracts that may have claims on metal here. I am not versed in their contracts at all and don't have a good data source right now. If anyone knows how to calculate the short obligation for London I would be glad to add it.
I have not analyzed any of the strike prices on COMEX options or dates on COMEX futures...some of them could be way out of the money or way in the future. Many silver producers sell futures years in advance to lock in prices, and then deliver the physical to satisfy the contracts.
Using the same basic methodology–total shorts divided by shares [toz in this case] outstanding–as is used on a stock to calculate short interest (and gave us the infamous 140% short interest on GME) we get......drumroll please: 1563.9 short / 810.9 physical = 192.9% short interest. OPEN INTEREST ON COMEX SILVER FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS EQUIVALENT TO A 192.9% SHORT INTEREST AGAINST ALL LONDON AND U.S. AVAILABLE INVENTORY. But it gets even worse.
WANNA ADD A GAMMA SQUEEZE??
I pulled the data for all current OI in SLV options. There is a large number (5.7 million) of call contracts open (here are the totals: https://imgur.com/tiqPA34) Using the .929toz/share number, we can calculate that there are up to 527.2Mtoz that would have to be bought during an absolute runaway Gamma Squeeze. Call options on $SLV max out right now at $55, so the spot price would only have to increase by around 122% to reach the point that all of that weight would need to have been purchased. But at some point, it could become self-reinforcing, and the gamma squeeze continues to cause more gamma squeezing. I believe that this almost happened Sunday evening (2021-01-31) as evidenced by the huge premium that $SLV was trading to the futures price for a few minutes when trading opened. (My comparison chart: https://i.imgur.com/UPjL3zm.png) The Silver ETF that trades on Sunday in Tel Aviv (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TCHF82:IT) closed up >6% (and was consistenly rising for the entire session) before any american spot markets opened. I believe that hedging algorithms at MM firms that write options saw this spike as a need to buy shares in $SLV to cover their deltas, and so they bought the opening of $SLV like crazy. $SLV opened up 17.6%, while paper only opened up about 6%. Paper market players had to sell 23.8Mtoz of paper in the first minute of trading to keep the price under control. I have never seen an imbalance like this before, and it was covered up quickly (within 2 hours of trading). But to me, it sounds like Vincent's heartbeat monitor in GATTACA when he runs out of fake signal: there was a cover up required to hide this explosion. When the day comes that this cover up is not executed properly, stuff is going to get ugly, b/c $SLV won't just gamma squeeze like a normal stock...
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! A TRADITIONAL GAMMA/SHORT SQUEEZE WILL SEEM LIKE NOTHING IN SILVER
The squeeze in silver will be FAR WORSE than the combination of a gamma and short squeeze in a stock, because shares of stock cannot be removed from the market. Eventually somebody holding $VW or $GME is going to say "sure, I'll sell at $42,000.69 per share" and that share can go back to cover a short. But if instead of doing that, the holder of that share withdrew it from the market by converting it to a physical token b/c they thought that the physical token would be more valuable than the share (the retail premium on physical silver vs. paper silver), the short interest would INCREASE as shares were converted into tokens. And since there are currently more "shares" of silver than there are bars of silver in the vault, the shorts can be caught with a literally illiquid market that has nothing to buy. Zero. Zilch. No silver available. The doomsday scenario (for paper silver holders and writers) is the following combination:
holders of COMEX warrants will see the rising premium of physical bullion to the spot price and decide to redeem their warrants for physical
a rising spot price will Gamma Squeeze the writers of $SLV options into buying more shares in a runaway fashion and the trust will absorb all available vault inventory as it issues new shares
COMEX warrant holders who try to demand metal that doesn't exist will literally break the market. The CBOE will probably step in and decide to force settle the contracts for cash at the last known good price, and COMEX paper warrants will cease trading forever. The physical market price will then be disconnected from the paper market, and $SLV as an exchange traded product will stand (mostly) alone as the new "paper" market for silver.
SO WTF DO I DO? [NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE]
Well I could always buy physical silver, if I can stomach the premium and wait 8 weeks for it to show up. Or, I could just get long on $SLV. Since I believe that $SLV will stand alone after the dust settles as the one true claim on bars in the vaults, I could be long the actual $SLV ticker in several ways:
Buying shares (duh, but it worked for $GME)
Buying long dated calls (Gamma Squeeze go BRRRRR, but who knows when)
My uncle left me a shifty little bar in his will. The employees here sleep in the backroom.
My uncle was an odd, lonely man. That one guy you try to avoid at family reunions, the one nobody knows too well but loves to talk about nonetheless. I think he liked me best because I never really enjoyed badmouthing him. I wouldn't say we were close, but we tolerated one another. At least that's how it was when I was little, we never bothered to stay in contact. I forgot about him by the time I left home. That's why the news of his death caught me completely by surprise. Uncle Mack was alone in his apartment when he had a heart attack causing cardiac arrest. He fell unconscious and died within minutes. Then there was me at the time. I had just flunked out of college and the only thing I was actually good at was playing video games. When I was contacted by Mack's lawyer, I was even more shocked. Mack had left me three things: a box of sorted letters addressed to me, all the money he used to own, which to me was a lot, and his bar–the one he had inherited from his father and had worked at all his life. I'll be frank, I had no idea what to do with the bar but I knew from the very start I'd take it over. I felt kind of honored–this had basically been Uncle Mack's entire life and he was giving it to me of all people. Sure, from what I knew there hadn't been many friends or loved ones in his life to choose from, but it was still flattering to me. Once I read the first letter, I was even more convinced. "Hi Giulia, If you're reading this, my bad eating habits have probably caught up to me. Or maybe someone killed me, who knows. As of me writing this, you're fifteen years old. You were the only one to talk to me at the family reunion today. Not for long, but more than just an awkward hello. I notice these things and I appreciate it. That's why I'm trusting you with the most important task anyone in this family is ever going to offer you. You are going to take over my bar. Besides, knowing you, you're not gonna have much of a career anyways, so you might as well. Once you're done reading this, please go to the bar at your earliest convenience. Take the box of letters with you and stash it away somewhere there. It has some valuable advice you're gonna need down the line. In fact, you will need to read the second letter right after your arrival. You'll find my employees are a bit special. Anyways, I hope you're doing alright, however this letter finds you. You're a good kid, Lia. Always have been. Besides, the only person you could possibly disappoint by screwing this up is dead so there's no pressure to impress. Sincerely, Your Uncle Mack." I wiped my eyes. They had actually gotten a bit watery while I was reading the letter. I folded the letter and tucked it back into the box before grabbing my coat and bag. Mack's bar was a train ride and a thirty-minute walk away from my parents' place, which is where I was residing at the moment. I figured I would probably have to look for a place close to the bar if I really would start working there full time. When I finally arrived at the establishment, it looked almost exactly the way I had expected. It was just another wall in the row of buildings on the street off to the side from the inner city's market square. A large, bright red double door with a neon sign reading "The New Saloon" above it. It would probably glow if I'd find out how to switch it on. At least I hoped it would glow. It felt weird, unlocking the door and opening it for the first time, all on my own. Entering and looking around inside felt even weirder. The New Saloon was your typical old-style dive bar. Even completely empty it looked overcrowded. The fabric of the cushion seats was stained and frayed, the walls behind and in front of the counter were plastered with neon beer signs and large framed photos of people I didn't know, some were even in black and white. The floors were dirty and my heels stuck to them when I walked further in. This place was small, shabby and smelly and I loved it. It was so strange but I suddenly just felt like this bar was mine, and that I needed to take care of it and protect it. Remembering what Mack had told me in his first letter, I pulled the second one out from the box and unfolded it. "Hi Giulia, If you're reading this, you're probably at the bar for the very first time! How do you like it? Let me guess, it's ugly and gross but it instantly started growing on you? Don't worry, it's about to get a lot weirder. You'll find the entrance to the backroom behind the counter. The lightswitch is on the inside of the wall, make sure to turn it on before you head inside because there's stairs leading down right behind the door. It's a death trap. Once you're in there, stand in the middle of the room. Stay away from the walls. You may then say out loud the following words: Spirits of this house, by the power of the spell that has bound you I command you to serve. You'll see what happens next. Whatever happens, keep in mind you can order them around. When all the work is done, simply tell them to go back into their room. You've got this. Sincerely, Your Uncle Mack." I frowned. That was odd. Was this the prelude to some kind of joke? I walked over to the door behind the counter and pressed down the handle. It swung open with a loud creaking noise and I began to grope around for the lightswitch. A single light bulb down in the backroom came flickering on and I proceeded down the rickety wooden stairs. No bannisters. Risky, especially with the shoes I was wearing. By the time I had reached the middle of the room, my heart was already beating faster than it should. Still, if this was a prank, Mack had been planning it for over five years, and I was not about to ruin it. Besides, no one was watching anyways. I cleared my throat. "Spirits of this house…" I began, a giggle swinging along in my voice. "By the power of the spell that has bound you I command you to serve." Nothing. Not a single sound for five whole seconds. I looked around the room. It was completely empty, except for a single door in the wall across from me. Maybe I had been supposed to say it in whatever room was behind that one? Just as I was about to walk over to it, a loud noise came from one of the walls to the side. I spun around to find that it had cracked open. Bits of it were beginning to crumble to the floor as the tear widened. I stared at it with my mouth agape, frozen in place and incapable of comprehending what I was seeing there. From the crack, a set of long, bony pale fingers reached out into the room, gripping the inside of the wall. My throat was too dry to produce a proper scream, but I couldn't contain a gasp as I staggered backwards until my back met with the other wall behind me. It was then that I felt cold palms rubbing against my neck and hands closing around my shoulders from behind. This time, I shrieked. I whirled around again only to see that there was a hole there too, long, skinny arms slowly moving forward from it, grabbing at me, searching for me. I glanced around the room frantically. Holes had opened in basically every spare spot. I counted four sets of arms pulling themselves out into the light, followed by similarly slender upper bodies. By the time I finally thought to run back up the stairs and save myself, the people from inside the walls were standing in the backroom, fully emerged from their dark hideouts. I didn't risk another look at them. When I finally reached the top stair, I dashed back into the bar and slammed the door shut behind me. I pressed myself up against it just to keep standing. My knees had grown weak beneath me and I was panting heavily, my mind racing. Then I heard them; slow, light footsteps making their way up the staircase and stop on top of it. I heard calm, steady breathing coming from the other side of the door. I tensed up and shifted my weight on my feet, leaning up against it to keep whomever was in there from getting out. I was sure this person would start to try pushing it open, but to my surprise, nothing happened. Instead, a voice rang out from inside. "Excuse me, who are you exactly?" It was a man's voice. I had expected something like a growl, or a hiss, or the groans of some decomposing zombie, but this was distinctly more articulate. It sounded almost polite. I didn't know what to do other than respond. "Giulia," I stammered. "Giulia?" The man sounded surprised. "What about Mack? Wait, if you're here…" He sounded quite sad now. "Mack's dead, isn't he?" "Yes," I replied quietly. "His heart stopped." "That's… good God." He fell silent and I heard him utter a shaky sigh, almost like a sob. "I'm sorry, would you give me a moment? I need to tell the others." "Go ahead," I murmured. "Nevermind, they heard us. So, will you let us out now or…?" "Who are you? Why were you in there?" "We work here, actually. My name is Andrik… I do most of the organizing here. I take care of the accounting, our profits, our spendings; I place the orders on most of what we need. Back here with me, I've got Bo, who is our bouncer, and Danika and May, both waitresses." "You work here?" I repeated. "And you live in the walls? After your shift is over, do you just go down there and melt into the room or what?" I couldn't help but let out a nervous chuckle at the mental image. This was just too absurd. At least I was breathing normally now. "Pretty much, yes." I shook my head. "What are you?" "Well, to explain that you would have to go exactly a hundred and twenty-two years back so it's a long story," Andrik replied. "All you need to know for now is that if you let us out, we'll get the bar up and running right away. We've been working under Mack ever since he took over this place though, so you'll have to excuse us if we're a bit gloomy." "No, that's fine," I muttered, slowly turning away from the door and carefully pulling it open. The man in front of me was of normal height, slender and looked to be in his thirties. Despite being dressed in jeans and a simple black t-shirt with the bar's name printed on it in white, swirly letters, he had a very official look to him. Maybe it was the way he stood, straight as a rod with a friendly yet matter-of-fact smile on his face. "Thank you," he said. Turning back to the room, he raised his voice. "You heard it everyone, Mack might be gone and while that's a downer, our work isn't over; so get yourselves up here and let's get this going again!" His tone carried the flat motivation the coach of a youth sports team might have. Three more people emerged from the backroom, all dressed exactly like Andrik, all of them that same content little grin on their lips. They walked by me offering polite greetings; the first one, a large, bulky guy giving me a curt nod and the two women that followed smiling brightly. The girls were a little younger than Andrik, maybe in their late twenties. Both had blond hair hanging down their shoulders in wavy pigtails. That first night the bar was open, I merely watched the backroom people work, following them around while they ignored me. It was eerie. They looked almost like automated mannequins, going about their routine by sticking to preplanned paths; like there were set directions painted somewhere I couldn't see. I soon began to notice other distinctive attributes about them. None of the people from the walls had fingernails. I saw it on the waitresses when they reached for the cups handed to them, on Andrik when he scribbled down notes. However that was not the only thing off about them. All those little details in their faces, the kind of thing you'd normally never pay attention to–they didn't add up. For example, their eyes didn't lign up. One was always slightly lower than the other, just enough for someone to notice. Their nostrils would differ in width and one of the girls' pinky fingers was the same length as her ring finger. Had I not known that they had just crawled out from the backroom walls, I would have chalked these harmless little oddities up to simple, inconspicuous deformities, but knowing what I knew, it made my skin crawl with uncomfort. I soon found out that Andrik did most of the talking for them. Bo rarely ever said a word, and all the waitresses did was whisper amongst themselves, giggle and chat with the patrons. Eventually, Andrik waved me over to him behind the counter. "Alright, to give you a rundown of the place, we have a cash-only system. We rely on our local clientele, but once in a while someone new comes by and then we try and keep them around, obviously. Here's some of our regulars." He pointed at a lady sitting in a corner, weeping over an empty glass of whiskey. "That's Shauna. Comes here whenever she can, only ever orders whiskey. Will not stop crying." His finger wandered over to an old, short man with an almost disproportionately large head and short white hair. He was sitting at one of the tables as well, talking to two younger women who seemed very much out of place. "That's Tommy. He's likely to start fights but he drinks a lot and tips very generously. Bo throws him out a lot but he's very easy on him, so don't worry." He finally nodded towards a tall glass of wine standing lonely on the counter right in front of us. "And this is Irene. She can't pay but she's always welcome. She's very nice and she's been here ever since Mack's family started this business." "Andrik, there's nothing there." The pale man threw me a confused glance. "What do you mean, she's right… oh! Of course. Don't worry, you'll start seeing her with time. Either way, for now there's actually not much for you to do except read up on barkeeping once you get the chance. However you should start getting acquainted with the regulars. After all, the owner of The New Saloon will always be part of the reason why people come here." He paused as his mouth started to twitch into an almost guileful grin. "I have a feeling they're going to love you." I retreated into the ladies' room for a quick break. I sat down on one of the toilets and buried my face in my palms. I had no idea what was going on or what I was supposed to do. Andrik had made himself pretty clear when it came to the instructions he'd given me, but all of this was so surreal I seriously considered the possibility of me having suffered some kind of blow to the head and dreaming it. I spent the rest of the night standing behind the counter and observing their every move. Andrik kept to my side mostly, looking at me with the kind of suspicion I probably had in my eyes as well. I couldn't figure him out. I accidentally-on-purpose walked by the waitresses who were talking to each other in hushed voices, picking up on small bits of their conversation. "Her blood is weaker than his. Do you think she's–?" "We shouldn't take any chances. Remember what Mack did when we tried to test him?" "I do, but this could be our chance to have some fun." Her words sent chills down my spine. Remembering Mack's letter however, I decided this was not the time to show I was frightened. "You're going to do no such thing," I chimed in from behind them. "I don't care what you are but I promise I'll find a way to make this whole thing very uncomfortable for you guys if you try to pull any kind of weird crap on me." The looks they gave me were worth my initial doubt. They seemed shocked that I had listened in on them at all, let alone spoken up. I glared at them, holding their gaze and ignoring the trembling of my legs. Their heads lowered, they marched off. When the bar began to clear out and we got ready to close down for the night, I told the four of them to clean up. Of course I helped, but I made sure never to lose sight of a single one of them. I felt like they were wild, hungry animals, waiting for their chance to pounce on me. Whenever I looked up from the rag I was wiping the countertop with, I would find one of them staring at me. By the time we were done, the place really did look a lot more welcoming. It certainly was cleaner, despite the four workers' angry faces spoiling the mood. We carried the cleaning supplies back into the small storage chamber next to the employee restroom before I went to open the backroom door for them. "Okay everyone, good job today! Thanks a lot, now back inside!" I called out, almost enjoying the feeling of authority as they came trodding towards me and made their way down into the dimly lit basement single-file. Andrik was the last one to cross the threshold. Right before descending the staircase, he turned to face me once more. "You were keeping a close eye on us," he said quietly. "That's clever. But you're going to need to keep it up and… let's see how long you'll last. Who knows what might happen." He gave me a sly wink with the one eye that was a little lower on his face before following his co-workers. I watched from the top of the stairs as they leaned up against the walls. It was almost as I had expected; their bodies seemed to melt into the holes they had come from, sealing them shut and not leaving so much as a thin crack. Lacking a better option, I stayed at a nearby inn that night. As bizarre and frightening as all of this had been, I got out of it unscathed. The bar workers and I would end up coming to blows in the future though, more than once. And I wouldn't always be that lucky. X Part 2: one of the regulars had a doppelgänger Part 3: My bouncer and I got beaten up by a little girl. Part 4: The regular who never stops crying. Part 5: Appreciate good employees.
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