PredictIt

Anybody know what’s the max you can put on a political bet on Bovada?

Hello again everyone! U/girlsgonekyle here with my 2017 Academy Awards betting guide. I am sorry for the delay on my write up this year. My home was recently broken into and it's put me behind quite a bit. Anyway, let's roll out the red carpet, grab a drink and add a little to our bankroll. I have almost 3 words for you : La La Land. Up for 14 awards this year it has a VERY real chance of taking the honor of being the most awarded movie of all time. I think it takes 12 awards (sorry Gosling) and will even land the top award over Moonlight. The fun of betting the Oscars is the technical awards and since La La Land is looking to sweep everything else I am going to concentrate a little more on tech this year because that seems to be where the best odds are. I will be betting with $10 units this year and as always I will be commenting live. Please follow or fade responsibly.
Picture

• La La Land -700
• Moonlight +550
• Hidden Figures +735
• Manchester By The Sea +2200
• Hacksaw Ridge +8000
• *Lion +10000
• Fences +12500
• Hell or High Water +15000
• Arrival +15000

La La Land will win this award. There has been a small surge in buzz on Lion but at most it will split off votes that would have gone to Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea. 5Dimes has this at -800 so go with bovada if you’re going to bet this one.
La La Land - 4 Units
Best Director

• Damien Chazelle - La La Land -3000
• Barry Jenkins - Moonlight +1000
• Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea +1200
• Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge +7000
• Denis Villeneuve - Arrival +10000

Again, La La Land and Damien Chazelle will take this one. This is even more of a lock that Best Picture.
Best Leading Actor

• Denzel Washington - Fences -160
• Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea -120
• Ryan Gosling - La La Land +2200
• Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge +5000
• Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic +15000

So here’s the deal with this one. Denzel was amazing in Fences, it was a character with a lot of range and power. Affleck recently had a little bit of a sexual harassment scandal and while early on was considered a slam dunk is now more of a 50/50. I am going with Denzel. This is one of the best performances on what is already a top tier resume. Lucky for us, there is a lot of meat on them bones.
Washington - 2 units
Best Leading Actress

• Emma Stone - La La Land -550
• Natalie Portman - Jackie +550
• Isabelle Huppert - Elle +950
• Meryl Streep +4000
• Ruth Negga +4500

Much like the Golden Globes I am all in on Emma Stone.
Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali - Moonlight -1200
• Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water +1800
• Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animal +2000
• Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea +3000
• Dev Patel - Lion +3000

Ali didn’t get the Golden Globe which was a shock. I stayed away then and I am staying away now. If you forced me to bet I would go with Patel and just a few bucks at most. He should be more like +2000 so there is some value there but I still think Ali wins.
Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis - Fences -3000
• Michelle Williams - Manchester By The
• Sea +1500
• Naomie Harris - Moonlight +2000
• Nicole Kidman - Lion +6000
• Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures +10000

Viola Davis is absolutely on fire right now. She has already won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critic’s Choice Awards for Fences. She is the becoming THE actress. Not betting because of the price but if you have the funds to burn this one is as sure as it gets. The academy can’t want to honor her acting.
Best Animated Feature Film

• Zootopia -1500
• Kubo and the Two Strings +550
• Moana +2000
• The Red Turtle +5000
• My Life As a Zucchini +5000

You know who loved Zootopia? Fucking, everyone that’s who. At-1500 this is too expensive to bet. There’s an outside chance for Moana but I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting it unless it was a few bucks for fun.
Best Foreign Language Film

• Toni Erdmann -140
• The Salesman -135
• A Man Called Ove +1000
• Land of Mine +3500
• Tanna +5000

This is one of the tighter races of the night and my instinct is to stay away. The research I have done seems to have this as more of a three way race with A Man Called Ove up along side The Salesman and Tori Erdmann. The Salesman has a ton of buzz right now because of the Iranian director's refusal to attend due to President Trump's attempted travel bans and giving him an award for that is EXACTLY something The Academy would do. It is also worth noting that the director of The Salesman won this award in 2012 so they know his name when they see it. Toni Erdmann however was the talk of the European Film Awards and has a lot of momentum leading into this years Oscars. If you don't mind reading subtitles and have 3 hours to kill I highly recommend the German Comedy. This one is a toss up and honestly any other year I think A Man Called Ove wins this but I am going with my gut and assuming the Oscar voters are going to try to get political with this one.
The Salesman - .5 units
Best Visual Effects

• The Jungle Book -500 EDITED FROM -350
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story +400
• Doctor Strange +750
• Deepwater Horizon +5000
• Kubo and the Two Strings +5000

A lot of great CGI this year. Personally I was most “wowed” by Doctor Strange but comic book movies haven’t really taken hold of academy voters. Star Wars has won a total of 6 Oscars, but they were all for A New Hope and if Episode 7 didn’t win this category I don’t think Rouge One will either. Jungle Book is a Disney film that is 100% digital and had a masssssive budget to pull off the goods and if you saw it you know it delivered. That King Louie sequence alone was Oscar worthy. Jungle Book, lock it in.
Jungle Book – 4 units
Best Costume Design

• La La Land -350
• Jackie +125 EDITED FROM +215
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them +2000
• Florence Foster Jenkins +2500
• Allied +5000

I have seen a lot of interesting thoughts on this category. Jackie would normally be an easy win. A period piece based around a woman who was THE fashion icon first lady. Unfortunately for them La La Land is also nominated.
Best Makeup

• Star Trek Beyond -350
• Suicide Squad +500
• A Man Called Ove +550

I would jump on Star Trek before it goes up any higher.
Star Trek – 3.5 Units
Best Sound Editing

• Hacksaw Ridge -190
• La La Land +185
• Arrival +500
• Deepwater Horizon +4000
• Sully +5000

Remember when I said I thought La La Land would win 12 out of 14? Well this is one of the two I think it might lose and Vegas agrees so far. There has never even been a musical nominated in this category. Does it win for the first time ever? I really don’t know if the voters are going to vote for La La Land here. Some will, but will it be enough? If you look at the history of this category one thing will stick out, movies with a wabattles! Past winners : Letters from Iwo Jima, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Pearl Harbor, U-571, Saving Private Ryan, Master and Commander, The Hurt Locker, American Sniper, and last year's Mad Max Fury Road. I feel like Hacksaw ridge fits into this category nicely and since the voters don't change year to year they clearly like war movies when it comes to sound.
Hacksaw Ridge - 2 Units
Best Documentary Short

• Extremis -200
• Joe's Violin +300
• The White Helmets +500
• Watani: My Homeland +2000
• 4.1 Miles +3300
• I only saw Extremis and Joe’s violin this year but I can say that Joe’s Violin stayed with me long after I saw it. My information shows a this closer to 50/50 between the two. It’s a tough call but I have to go with my gut and take Joe’s Violin.

Joe’s Violin - .5 Unit
Best Original Song

• City of Stars - La La Land -800
• Audition - La La Land +550
• How Far I'll Go - Moana +650
• Can't Stop The Feeling! - Trolls +2500
• The Empty Chair - Jim: The James Foley Story
• +6600

OK guys so who likes a fun fact? If the song from Moana wins, Lin Manuel Miranda will be the youngest person ever to win an Emmy, Tony, Grammy, and Oscar. Unfortunately for him literally all of my research says City of Stars. Too expensive for me so I am staying away. Don’t count out Moana though, the Oscars love making a good story.
Best Short Film - Live Action

• Ennemis Interieurs -175
• Timecode +280
• Sing +750
• Silent Nights +2500
• La Femme et le TGV +2500

The last award on my list is actually a great value. Ennemis Interieurs is all anyone is writing about when it comes to this category.
Ennemis Interieurs – 2 Units
EDIT :
Somehow I missed Best Original Screenplay

• Manchester by the Sea -135
  
• La La Land -110
  

I am leaving the other three off because they are not going to factor into this. There is a good argument to be made that because Manchester by the Sea really was such a good film that it should take home an award and if it had a chance to win any award this would probably be it. I still think at the end of the day the voters look at the list and pick La La Land. I am sticking with my gut on 12/14. As far as the research goes its split down the middle. My favorite writer chose Manchester so it does make me nervous but what can you do?
La La Land - 1 unit